A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
