Officials in Tehran are weighing the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees across its western borders into neighboring states. This move forms part of what officials describe as a inevitably more offensive and unexpected approach in the wake of the bombing of its nuclear sites and the EU restoration of United Nations penalties.
Multi-Pronged Offensive Includes Growth of Missile Development
The broad strategy encompasses expansion of its missile programme, strengthening air defences, halting collaboration with the UN weapons inspectorate and, on October 18, blocking the establishment of a UN committee to oversee the administration of the restored penalties. Officials remain opposed to reopening talks with the United States, believing the talks would fail.
Migrant Warning Mirrors Erdoğan's Statement
The warning about migrant movement towards the west and also eastward has echoes of the warning issued by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who threatened to send countless Syrian migrants into European nations.
Iran has at times had to accommodate as many as 6 million Afghan refugees, but Amnesty International reports that in 2025, one million Afghans have been sent back to Afghanistan, having fled either due to poverty or Taliban rule.
The organization alleged the large-scale returns were increased in the wake of the June 12 Israeli strikes on Iran’s leadership and nuclear sites. It estimates 500,000 Afghans were deported over the border after the attacks.
Document Nullification for Migrants
Prior to March of this year, millions of Afghan nationals had been permitted to temporarily legalise their stay in Iran by obtaining a “headcount” document. Those granted this document could access restricted benefits, such as state healthcare, public education, work authorisation, banking access and the right to make housing contracts. But the authorities nullified these headcount documents.
The Tehran government have given different figures about the number of Afghan refugees in the country, but estimates suggest a minimum of 2 million reside without legal status. The UN refugee agency has predicted that up to 4 million Afghans could be returned to their homeland this year.
Broader Programme of Reconstruction Under Way
A wide-ranging reconstruction effort is ongoing in the country, involving debates about the tools it possesses to protect itself in the wake of the Israeli-US attacks in June. Tehran has called back its diplomats from European nations for consultations at the Iranian foreign office about the crisis.
Authorities are hesitant about leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, partly since the substantive steps were already implemented to end co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Diplomatic Proposals and International Response
Iranian officials confirm that in talks with France at the UN general assembly, Iran offered to permit nuclear monitors to visit one bombed nuclear site at Natanz, and also offered to disclose its reserves of enriched nuclear material within 45 days. As a counteroffer, Iran wanted the risk of reinstatement of United Nations penalties to be lifted permanently, instead of a temporary suspension, the original French-led offer.
Tehran alleges the US refused to engage with these offers, which Iran views as an increasingly unstable and amateurish American diplomacy run by Steve Witkoff, a figure viewed by Tehran as either uninformed or deceitful. For example, Witkoff was sending the Iranian representatives traveling to the United Nations details of a meeting he was intending to hold with Iranian officials, but he then scrapped the meeting altogether.
Upcoming Diplomatic Clash and Russian Role
In the next probable diplomatic clash with the US, it is expected that on 18 October Russia, which holds the rotating presidency of the security council, will exercise its authority as a permanent council member to block the establishment of a UN committee to monitor and oversee the sanctions the EU reimposed last week.
Moscow and Beijing have already written to the UN leader, Secretary-General Guterres, to state European countries lacked the authority to reimpose the penalties as they did on 28 September, since Europe in their view was no longer a participant in the nuclear deal, and had not exhausted the conflict resolution process.
The impasse suggests that some countries will not comply with the enforcement of the UN sanctions. Nations like Japan, Canada, and Turkey have begun to reimpose the sanctions, but states aligned with Russia and China will refuse. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, issued a presidential decree mandating financial blocks on Iranian individuals and entities linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and major state banks.
Impact of Sanctions on Iranian Economy
Officials say the most damaging sanctions on Iran are the existing ones imposed by the US, and by comparison the reinstated UN measures originally from 2006-2010 are relatively narrow, as they exclude Iran's petroleum industry but rather targeted financial blocks, weapon restrictions and prohibitions on missile sales.
However, Iran acknowledges that even the limited restoration of UN sanctions is having an impact economic confidence and on the exchange rate. The value of the US dollar in Iran's open market has reached an all-time high.
