Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
