This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory
A mere two months in the past that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.